Fantasy football rankings Week 9: Dave Richard's tough start/sit calls clear up your toughest flex decisions

It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and for your Fantasy football squads, this is a pivotal week. With more teams on bye and major injuries to starting quarterbacks around the NFL, the fringe plays are now more mainstream and for good reason. Your stat/sit decisons have just gotten a lot more difficult and the matchups play an even more important role now than ever.

That's where Dave Richard's Week 9 matchup breakdown comes in. From defensive coverages and pass-rush pressure to backfield workloads and target distribution, we'll examine the factors that matter most to help you identify trustworthy starters, avoid potential disappointments and make the best possible lineup decisions.

Dave Richard's Week 9 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

Joe Fagnano has extensive college experience (starting at Maine for four years before transferring to UConn for two more years) and has proven to be a reliable, quick-game pocket quarterback. Asking him to be anything more than that might be problematic, even if his pass protection won't be too rough. Last year at UConn he connected with Skyler Bell on a ton of quick throws, but not necessarily all short throws, for huge numbers. My best guess is that the Ravens scheme up a slew of targets to Zay Flowers against the Jaguars' zone-heavy defense with the hope he breaks a couple of plays for big yardage. The Jaguars happen to rank bottom-five in both yards per attempt and average depth of throw allowed to receivers on throws under 2.5 seconds, but it's not like they've been crushed on quick passes -- Darius Cooper had a long touchdown against a coverage bust and Keenan Allen had a lot of quick-game volume to help push their numbers to decent totals. Tight ends like Foster Moreau and Mike Gesicki have had more success, so maybe that helps raise the outlook for Mark Andrews, who leads all tight ends and is second on the team with 21 targets on quick throws this season. It's probably not enough to call him anything more than a low-end streamer, though. That leaves Flowers as the only Ravens pass-catcher with decent Fantasy potential as a No. 2 receiver.

START: Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Derrick Henry (No. 2 RB), Parker Washington, Zay Flowers (No. 2 WR), Jaguars DST

FLEX: Brenton Strange (PPR; high-end No. 2 TE)

SIT: Joe Fagnano, Chris Rodriguez (bye-week RB unless Tuten is out), Mark Andrews (bye-week TE), Jakobi Meyers, Justice Hill (desperation PPR RB), Brian Thomas Jr., Rashod Bateman, Ravens DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

Kyle Pitts wasn't the problem last week -- his quarterback in the rain against a suffocating Buccaneers pass rush was. Pitts generally stuck to short-area routes as an easy option for Michael Penix Jr., though he was wide open on a deep corner that Penix overthrew. Penix otherwise melted down and threw four picks and three other shoulda-been picks. Pitts also didn't see any red-zone snaps until the final drive of the game when Penix was pressured and either misfired or had his ball batted down on three straight plays. Weather won't be a factor in Spain's stadium, and Cincinnati's pass rush has blitzed at the lowest rate this season with a league-average pass rush pressure rate. The Falcons haven't let Penix get sacked in either of their past two games, which is quite a feat given who they've played. This seems like a good spot for Penix, which means it's a good spot for Pitts to be trusted in what should be a high-scoring game.

MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Drake London

START: Chase Brown, Kyle Pitts

SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Mike Gesicki (bye-week TE), Samaje Perine, Jahan Dotson, Bengals DST, Falcons DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

Carolina's offensive problems last week started with an offensive line that let up pass-rush pressure on 52.2% of Bryce Young's dropbacks -- and six sacks. Denver's pass rush has only gotten more dangerous with Jonathon Cooper on the field and will be a big challenge for a Panthers O-line down to a third-string left guard and a rookie right tackle. That meant mediocre numbers for Carolina's wide receivers last week; a repeat is possible this week. Of the six wideouts to achieve at least 16 PPR points against Denver in 2026, five needed at least eight targets, three needed 12-plus. Just four touchdowns have been allowed to receivers, all of which came away from Pat Surtain, who will likely follow Tetairoa McMillan. Red-zone motion and crossing patterns have tripped up Denver on three of the TDs, but how many red-zone trips will the Panthers have? And for what it's worth, this Denver defense has yielded more touchdowns to tight ends than wide receivers on the year. Jalen Coker has more than five targets in just one of his past four games (and five max in each of his past two); getting him more involved might make some sense, but on the year Coker has just a 12.2% target per route run rate and a 1.04 yard per route run average when Young's been pressured. That's pretty rough; Tetairoa McMillan and Chuba Hubbard have much higher target rates when the heat's been on Young. I imagine they'll get more targets, especially McMillan on designed short throws, which has been the case lately. Those last two are the only Panthers I feel even remotely okay starting.

MUST-START: Chuba Hubbard

START: Jonah Coleman, Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Broncos DST

FLEX: Jalen Coker, Jaylen Waddle

SIT: Bo Nix (bye-week QB), Bryce Young, Courtland Sutton (bye-week WR), Darren Waller, JK Dobbins, Panthers DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

Maybe the only bright spot for the Cowboys has been Quinnen Williams finally making positive contributions, with 15 pressures, four sacks, and zero missed tackles, along with 10 run stops in his past three games. Granted, they've come against some suspect offensive lines, but that's a worry for another week with the Colts up next. Dallas' defense is ugly, no doubt, but so too is Indianapolis' offense. They've allowed a sack rate of at least 11.8% in each of their past three games (two with Quenton Nelson still on the team), and last week they allowed a 45.9% pass rush pressure rate against Jacksonville, their second-worst rate on the season. Mind you, that's in a game the Jaguars lost their best D-tackle and one of their best pass rushers in. Daniel Jones has faced bad defenses this season and he's come away looking rough. Jones' efficiency has nosedived, and his gun-shy nature has limited the Colts' pass game all year. I'm not convinced Jones will take advantage of this cake matchup, leaving Tyler Warren, Keenan Allen and Josh Downs to get by on volume. Of those three, I would expect Allen to see the target volume necessary to be helpful for Fantasy.

MUST-START: Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb

START: Dak Prescott, Jonathan Taylor, George Pickens, Tyler Warren (low-end start)

FLEX: Keenan Allen (PPR), Ryan Flournoy

SIT: Daniel Jones, Josh Downs, Seth McGowan, DJ Giddens, Cowboys DST (desperation DST), Colts DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

This feels like a sneaky high-scoring game. Kansas City's pass rush has been noticeably quiet (nine sacks and a 3.6% sack rate this year), and Geno Smith's splits are noticeably better when he's not pressured -- his past two games are recent examples. And if that's not bad enough, the Chiefs figure to be down their top two cornerbacks again. Who benefits with Garrett Wilson not expected to play? Adonai Mitchell enters the week 15th among all qualifying wide receivers in target per route run rate (25.7%), so he's got a great shot to lead the Jets in targets even though he's far more of a downfield weapon than short-area target. Omar Cooper Jr. would also be expected to handle plenty of snaps, even after last week's donut. He got open plenty, but Smith kept firing to Wilson and Mitchell. Cooper Jr. has played more snaps in two-tight end formations over the last three weeks than any Jets receiver other than Wilson. He also can fit in nicely as a short-area threat like Wilson had been on 70% of his targets. Mitchell and Cooper are the best options on the Jets to flex.

Updated: The Jets coaching staff made it clear that Breece Hall will be their starter in his first game back from injury. Is that a peek inside their minds on how they'll use him and Braelon Allen? Keep in mind, it's Allen who for the past four games has been top five among qualifying RBs in yards per rush (5.6), rush EPA, success rate, yards after contact per rush (4.15), explosive rush rate (15.2% of his runs have gone at least 12 yards). You'd think they'd keep leaning on Allen, but it's hard to trust this coaching staff to do anything right, plus it's worth pointing out that Hall had roughly a 60/40 snap share split with Allen in Weeks 1 and 2 before Hall got hurt in Week 3 (Hall played more inside the five-yard line in those games). The uncertainty is a problem, especially since the Chiefs have allowed a running back to land at least 18.5 PPR points three times in their past four games, and every single RB with at least 15 touches against Kansas City has at least 14.5 PPR points thanks to work in the passing game. I started the week expecting Allen to have the better end of a 60/40 split, but maybe the edge should go to Hall since he had 10 receptions on 10 targes through Week 3 compared to four receptions on five targets for Allen in those same games.

MUST-START: Kenneth Walker III

START: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce

FLEX: Adonai Mitchell, Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, Omar Cooper Jr. (low-end PPR flex)

SIT: Geno Smith (bye-week QB), Xavier Worthy, Mason Taylor, Emmett Johnson, Chiefs DST, Jets DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em

Jameson Williams has drawn the attention of Jared Goff to the point where the speedy receiver is not only seeing increased targets ahead of Sam LaPorta, but also taking a small share of targets away from Amon-Ra St. Brown! Coming out of the bye, it was Goff who found Williams as a second read on five of his nine targets, including his second touchdown (and on an end-zone target later in the game). That led to at least half of Williams' six targets in Week 8 being throws designed for him, including the deep post shot he gained 46 yards on. This is great for Detroit's offense, but a little depressing for those who start LaPorta and, to a lesser degree, St. Brown. Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley has plenty of experience scheming against Detroit's personnel from his days in Green Bay, but his current group of defenders doesn't blitz much, doesn't pressure the quarterback enough, ranks league average in PPR points allowed to wide receivers in their past three, and ranks third-worst in PPR points allowed to tight ends on the season. So while LaPorta has been more of a blocker, chipper and check-down option over his past two games, his matchup is impossible to resist in what should be a get-right spot.

MUST-START: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

START: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Ollie Gordon, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST (one-week option)

FLEX: Malik Washington (PPR)

SIT: Malik Willis (high-end No. 2 QB), Caleb Douglas (bye-week WR), Greg Dulcich (bye-week TE), Dolphins DST

Start 'em

10.0-7.00

6.99 - 5.01

5.00 - 0

Sit 'em