Welcome to Week 9: What Solak thinks about two division races, one coach candidate, potential RB trades

Ben Solak Nov 3, 2026, 06:35 AM ET

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Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

Are you excited for NFL Week 9 ? It's the last week before the trade deadline next Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. It's also the official midway point of the season. Feel that little bite in the air? Playoff football will soon cometh.

Every Tuesday of the NFL season , I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.

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This week, I'll start with my headliner expectation for the 2026 trade deadline, irresponsibly put my faith in a 3-5 Buccaneers team and wonder just how much the Chargers would get if they traded Justin Herbert .

Jump to:

RB trades are coming before the deadline

Cowboys should trade Pickens

Irving will lead the Bucs to NFC South title

Steelers are going to win the AFC North

Three teams should try to trade for Herbert

Campanile will be a head coach candidate

Bears could be dangerous with Simmons

Some extra trade inklings

I think ... the running back movement will be the story of the trade deadline

The splashiest name included in the 2026 NFL trade deadline rumor mill is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor .

He is a special player who can have the same impact on a healthy offense that Saquon Barkley had for the Eagles in 2024 and Derrick Henry for the Ravens in the same year. Barkley and Henry had rushing success rates of 35.4% and 37.8%, respectively, and averaged 4.2 and 4.3 yards per carry, respectively, in the two seasons before they joined their new squads. Over the past two seasons, Taylor has a 41.2% success rate and is averaging 4.7 yards per pop. His recent body of work, along with the glimmer of elite play we saw in the early parts of the 2025 season, indicates that he can be a transformative addition.

As such, the Colts are -- unsurprisingly -- demanding a big return for Taylor. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Colts' asking price is something in line with the Christian McCaffrey trade package from 2023 -- a second-round pick, a third-round pick and some more capital.

If Taylor gets dealt for that much compensation to a team such as the Vikings, Giants, Broncos or Bengals (or a surprise team such as the Packers and Seahawks), it's possible the running back trade market will freeze up. If the Colts get that much in return for Taylor, what could the Titans get for Tony Pollard or the Jets for Breece Hall ?

Jets head coach Aaron Glenn shut down trade speculation involving Hall after the 2-6 Jets' loss to the Raiders this past week, saying, "We're in the business of keeping good players, and he's one of our better players. So, Breece will still be here."

I'm inclined to believe Glenn. Then again, Glenn could be on his way out, and I don't think general manager Darren Mougey would lament making Glenn look silly by trading Hall should he receive a big offer from a team that misses out on Taylor.

Similarly, I find the reports that the Eagles would never trade Barkley reasonable, but not absolute. Barkley was asked if the front office told him he'd be with the Eagles beyond the deadline , and he responded, "It was mentioned to me." Of course, that's before the Eagles lost another game -- to the 1-4-1 Commanders. I would put the chances of Barkley not getting traded somewhere between 95-99%, but Roseman is the sort of GM to never say never.

The more I look at the landscape, the more I see an environment ripe for running back trades. The need is great.

Denver is entrusting a lot of backfield snaps to a fourth-round rookie in Jonah Coleman ( whom I like quite a bit) , but the Broncos need their running game to be more dangerous given the limitations on the Bo Nix -led passing attack. Quarterback Kyler Murray was Minnesota's leading rusher against the Lions, as the Vikings struggle to get their running game going to open their play-action pass attack. Josh Jacobs returned for the Packers from the commissioner exempt list, but he still might be suspended and hasn't been the same since coming back. The Bengals are looking for an upgrade over Chase Brown , as are the Giants with Cam Skattebo , whom they don't seem to trust to be a three-down player.

But the market is paralyzed by Taylor, as all these teams stare down the Colts and their towering demands. Someone will soon break from the ranks and trade for Pollard, a steady, three-down back who has reminded the league of his characteristic energy after consecutive games of 100-plus rushing yards. (I vote for the Giants, as assistant coach Brian Callahan has familiarity with Pollard.) The Cardinals should trade someone off their roster, as Bam Knight , Tyler Allgeier and the soon-to-be-healthy James Conner all don't need to split time while rookie Jeremiyah Love gets healthy . Jaguars running back Chris Rodriguez Jr . has lost the timeshare to Bhayshul Tuten , but Rodriguez is still a solid player who would pair well with a twitchy counterpart (looking at you, Cincinnati).

If I were general manager of the Vikings or the Packers -- both looking to make a deep NFC playoff run but terrified of handing the ball off more than 10 times a game -- I'd be making calls beyond the obvious options from the Colts and Titans.

Raiders second-year running back Ashton Jeanty was all but benched in Week 8 -- rookie Mike Washington Jr. outcarried him 25-2 -- and Jeanty hasn't looked particularly healthy this season. Can a playoff contender acquire the former first-rounder for a Day 2 pick, rest him up and get him healthy for the postseason?

The Rams are funneling carries to Blake Corum more boldly than ever; he has 29 touches to Kyren Williams ' 35 over the past two weeks, which are notably the two weeks after Williams said the Rams' energy was fluctuating drive over drive " probably because I'm not out there. " I think the Rams like their 1-2 punch, but I'd definitely call to make sure.

The Chargers have three playable backs ( Omarion Hampton , Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell ), and that is three more than their win total. The Seahawks also have three playable backs ( Zach Charbonnet , Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson ) on top of third-down pass protector George Holani . Travis Etienne Jr . will soon return from injured reserve to rejoin Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller in the Saints' three-player backfield. Does Chuba Hubbard move if the Panthers fall to 3-5 next Sunday?

Saquon Barkley staying put in Philly

There seems to be way more backs possibly available than during previous deadlines. The trade deadline frequently features running back movement. In four of the past nine seasons, at least two running backs were traded in October and November. In 2022, a whopping six running backs exchanged teams. This position has contracts that are fairly fungible and roles that can be easily catered to skill sets; it's easy to move them midseason.

What I think is rare(r) this season is the need . Four clear contenders (Broncos, Bengals, Packers and Vikings) have serious run-game concerns, and there are running back depth charts that can be substantially improved. Taylor can go to only one of those teams, and the other three will be left scrambling for Pollard. Once that dust settles, the desperation could jack up the cost and muster a surprise, big-ticket trade.

Or Taylor won't be dealt because the Colts hold firm on their demands and find no trade partner. And then, nothing else happens. But that wouldn't be an interesting column and sure would be a disappointment come Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET. So we won't think about that, will we?

I think ... George Pickens forces his way out of Dallas by the deadline

I understand academically that the 3-5 Cowboys are not planning to trade anyone this deadline. Executive vice president Stephen Jones said on the radio this week that they're open to acquiring a player at the deadline to help salvage this season.

I think that is about as short-sighted an approach as can be. The Cowboys are already massively leveraged against their future draft capital. Thanks to the Micah Parsons trade, Dallas still has a first-round pick in the 2027 NFL draft . However, that pick will be the worst of either the Cowboys' or Packers' selection -- and Green Bay looks like a team that might pick in the high 20s this year. The Cowboys are missing a third, a fifth and a sixth in the upcoming draft after the trades for Broderick Jones , Pickens and Joey Porter Jr . -- and are down a 2028 second-round pick as well.

Dallas has 10 total picks over the next two drafts; the next closest are the Rams, Texans and Bears with 12 apiece. The Cowboys are not projected to earn compensatory selections in the 2027 draft, so no extra picks are coming. The Cowboys can't cut much payroll in the upcoming seasons because they lack the draft capital.

Stephen A. proposes a Steelers reunion with George Pickens

Over the Cap has the Cowboys 22nd out of 32 teams in 2027 cap space and 25th in 2028 cap space. Dallas' books are laden with veteran contracts. By average annual value, the Cowboys have the second-most expensive quarterback ( Dak Prescott ), the sixth-most expensive receiver ( CeeDee Lamb ), the 10th-most expensive tight end ( Jake Ferguson ), the second-most expensive guard ( Tyler Smith ), the second-most expensive defensive tackle ( Quinnen Williams ) and the 10th-most expensive cornerback ( DaRon Bland ). Oh, and the most expensive kicker ( Brandon Aubrey ).

These contracts give the Cowboys an opportunity to convert base salary into bonus money and create short-term cap space -- a technique they've largely avoided, but deployed earlier this season when they restructured the deals for Ferguson, Bland and defensive tackle Kenny Clark . Those players are also three of the biggest veteran disappointments on an underwhelming roster.

The Cowboys' future spending is so significant because Dallas has two enormous rising free agents: Pickens and Porter. Pickens was acquired after the 2025 draft. The Cowboys did not sign him to an extension before his career-best 93-catch, 1,429-yard season and franchise-tagged him shortly thereafter. Pickens is playing on the tag (worth $27.3 million) and will either hit free agency or receive the second franchise tag (worth about $32.8 million) in 2027.

The Cowboys can't swallow another $33 million on their 2027 cap -- certainly not if they'd like to retain the tag to use on Porter, who is also playing without an extension and would like to be paid upwards of $30 million per year. Remember: they get only one tag per year.

Can the Cowboys extend Pickens at a market rate? That'll be, conservatively, over $33 million APY -- worryingly close to Lamb's $34 million per year . Not only might that number introduce some uneasiness in the Cowboys' wide receiver depth chart, but they would be paying it to a player who has cleared 100 yards just once this season and is known for declining effort and interest when he isn't getting the football.

I can't figure out how it makes sense for the Cowboys to keep Pickens on their roster in 2027. The money doesn't add up from a cap-management perspective, nor does the on-field opportunity and impact at that contract rate. And if the Cowboys' ownership doesn't see this, perhaps Pickens will.